Max Wind Kt Gusts Kt Kt Ne Se Sw Nw Kt Ne Se Sw Nw

14. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE . . . ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5 . . . AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. [The average four-day position forecast error for prior tropical storms is 200 miles. We will use a more conservative long-term average error of100 miles per day, however.]

15. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 19.3N 173.0W. MAX WIND

70 KT . . . GUSTS 85 KT. [Due to the low level ofcertainty ofa storm forecast four days out, wind radii are not provided with the 96-hour forecast. Use the same threshold wind values as in the 72-hour forecast.]

16. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.6N 159.0W.

17. NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z.

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